Giants 2019 Preseason Top Prospects

Wouldn’t be spring if I didn’t put out a top prospects list. These are very basic reports, but most of you already know the names. I just wanted to give an idea of how I see these guys stacking up. There are links for further (and more detailed) reading at the end of this list.

So here goes!

#1: Joey Bart | C = The Giants haven’t had a consensus top-40 prospect in many years (Belt?), and Bart is the total package. Keep an eye on his strikeouts, but he needs reps more than anything else at this point.

#2: Heliot Ramos | CF = He survived the big, bad Sally League, but expectations are appropriately higher for him this season in San Jose. Can he elevate from surviving to thriving?

#3: Marco Luciano | SS = Luciano hasn’t had a professional AB, and yet he might be the most hyped prospect in the system this winter. That swing!

#4: Logan Webb | RHP = The velocity is up, the post-rehab gloves are coming off, and he looks be primed for a big summer in Richmond.

#5: Shaun Anderson | RHP = Anderson is Steady-Eddie, but his presence in the Future’s Game shows there’s some internal love happening for him. Big league cameo coming his way… maybe more?

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Finding 40 Wins: The 2019 Giants

It’s FanFest Saturday, so I’m sure you’ll forgive the optimistic & potentially dreamy tone of another post that relies on the Giants signing Bryce Harper. Just hear me out…

Early in the offseason I created a Net Value spreadsheet for MLB last season. While WAR Dollar values are all the rage, it’s actually another facet of the spreadsheet that has stayed with me. Here’s a breakdown of the WAR totals for postseason vs. non-postseason teams in 2018. Keep in mind these figures don’t include every last player who appeared on a roster last year, but they’re pretty darn close. I also rounded them for convenience sake. Oh, and I left out the bottom-feeders, because I felt like it…

Playoff Teams fWAR

• Yankees = 57
• Astros = 54
• Dodgers = 53
• Red Sox = 51
• Indians = 50
• A’s = 45
• Braves = 42
• Brewers = 42
• Cubs = 40
• Rockies = 34

Non-Playoff Teams fWAR

• Nationals = 42
• Cardinals = 40
• Rays = 39
• Angels = 37
• Mets = 37
• Mariners = 36
• Pirates = 35
• Diamondbacks = 35
• Giants = 22 (23rd in MLB)

Retooling the Offense; A Two-Year Plan

The Plan

2018-19 Offseason… aka NOW.

Move 1: Sign UT Marwin Gonzalez – Yes, even if it takes four years. We want a lineup that can help win games, and he’s a solid complimentary piece regardless of who is around him.

Move 2: Sign RF Bryce Harper – Easier said than done, right? The thing is, now is the perfect time for Zaidi to swoop in and land Harper. If he wanted to play for the Nats, who apparently offered him $300M, wouldn’t he have signed by now? Anyway, there would be at least a couple opt-outs in the deal, for sure, but make him an 8-10 year offer he can’t refuse, and sell him on the fact that he’ll and Joey Bart will be a force in the middle of the lineup starting in 2020.

Move 3: Trade Tony Watson to Tampa Bay for 2B/OF Nick Solak – I have no idea why a deal hasn’t been made for Watson already, but this one needs to happen before the season starts. The Rays have one of the deepest farm systems in baseball, and Solak is currently about 8th on the organizational 2B depth chart. He’d probably spend most of this year in AAA, but the plan would be to plug his right-handed bat into a starting spot in 2020. Here’s his profile.

2019 In-Season

Move 4: Select one of CF Kameron Misner, SS Bryson Stott, 3B Josh Jung, or SS Will Holland with the 9th pick in the MLB Draft. – If we’re rebuilding the lineup, we’re looking for the hitter we think can impact our lineup the quickest (roughly 18-24 months). If that’s a prep player, great, but this class currently looks pretty deep in the way of collegiate bats, and all four of the above mentioned project as everyday big leaguers.

Move 5: Trade Will Smith to Atlanta for one of 3B Austin Riley, RF Christian Pache, or CF Drew Waters (+ a lower level prospect) – The Braves have one of the most stacked, young rosters in the league, but for some reason have neglected their pitching staff this winter. For our sake, we have to hope they hold strong in that regard, and don’t go out & sign Craig Kimbrel and/or Dallas Keuchel. If they don’t that would leave them as the PERFECT trade deadline match for Smith and/or Bumgarner.

If Smith has the season he’s capable of having, then Zaidi should demand to get back Riley, who’s currently MLB’s #43 prospect overall. If he doesn’t, Pache (#68) or Waters (#91) are still reasonable targets who would immediately move to the upper tier of the farm system.

Move 6: Trade Madison Bumgarner if offered a top 30 prospect in return. If not, keep him and extend a qualifying offer after the season. – This gives the franchise more options in my opinion, including bringing him back on a high salary for one or two years, or getting a supplemental pick for him. Maybe that supplemental pick ends up being a player with far greater potential than any prospect Zaidi has been and will be offered for Bum?

2019-20 Offseason & Early Season

Move 7 & 8: Trade Evan Longoria (if possible) & Brandon Belt (when Bart is ready to be promoted)

Moves 9-10-11: Promote Bart, Riley, & Solak to the Majors

Potential 2020 Mid-Season Lineup

1. Steven Duggar CF (L)
2. Buster Posey 1B (R)
3. Bryce Harper RF (L)
4. Joey Bart C (R)
5. Marwin Gonzalez LF (S)
6. Austin Riley/Evan Longoria 3B (R)
7. Brandon Crawford SS (L)
8. Nick Solak 2B (R)

*Disclaimer: This plan is simultaneously crazier & not as crazy as you might think.

 

 

A Few Suggestions for “Fixing” MLB

The slow offseason leads to a bevy of other topics arising. The collective bargaining agreement is again at the forefront of talks. There are cracks in MLB’s foundation, and most people believe a player strike is coming. The two sides have three seasons to work things out, but they likely won’t. In the meantime, we can throw around different suggestions for “fixing baseball.” Here are a few of mine. None of them are really ground-breaking, but all could help solve an issue dragging down the game we love.

#1: Offseason Signing Deadline

It’s not just that MLB’s offseason has grown incredibly dull – and make no mistake, it has. Having the majority of your free agent class unsigned, including star players like Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, with less than a month left until spring training is bad for baseball. Not all of this is on the teams though. Scott Boras, who claims to be all for the players, is essentially playing into the league’s hands by stalling the market. With Boras dragging things out for most of his clients, it’s pretty easy for GMs to sit back and wait until the last minute, when players literally have no option but to sign for significantly less money. And that’s exactly what’s happening, with no end in sight.

I’m not looking for wholesale changes here, but I do think there needs to be a free agent deadline for all parties to meet. New Year’s Day feels like a good date to me, as it’s basically the half-way point of the offseason. Once January 1 hit, there’d be a freeze on MLB free agent signings until one week before Opening Day. Under my scenario, there would be no limitations on trades, and I’m not sure I’d put a deadline on minor league deals either.  The hope is that November and December would be much more exciting for fans, and that most players would have some security entering the New Year.

The Time Was Right

Some personal, non-baseball news to share here. I recently achieved what had been a dream of mine for many years, as I am now a published author on Amazon.

I began writing a sports history of sorts for my small-town high school as a graduation project, and continued to research and add to the story during my time at Chico State. All told, the project took nearly five years to complete, and it had been sitting on a flash drive since 2011. Now it’s available to the world, and I’m very excited to see where things go.

A little background: my little hometown near Chico, CA was never known for sports. We were the ultimate bottom-feeders in most programs during my childhood and high school years. Most of the records for football and basketball were owned by players from the 50’s and 60’s that nobody had ever heard of. I decided to research that era, not knowing it would lead to a full-blown novel.

For folks interested in sports at all, I do think the tales in this book are attention-grabbing. A school of 250 taking on state champions from Oregon, Nevada, and multiple prestigious Bay Area & Sacramento schools. Many of the events that took place still baffle me.

Anyway, I know many of you have loyally followed this blog over the years, and I thought maybe you’d be interested in checking this out. If you enjoy my writing here, I will say, it truly doesn’t hold a candle to the novel. That thing is by far my life’s greatest work.

It’s available in paperback ($15.99) and digital (7.99). I hope you’ll at least take a look inside the preview on Amazon!

I just really wanted to share this milestone with all of you. Thanks for your support over the years, and for keeping me motivated to write.

~ Cove Chatter (Kyle)

January Trade Scenarios

Zaidi says a deal or two are on the way. Finally! Here’s a few ideas on what might be shaking out on the trade front.

Current Bumgarner status: Jon Morosi has officially irritated Farhan Zaidi over the Bumgarner rumors. Giants probably hold onto Bum now, if for no other reason than to spite the national media!

Players on the block: Will Smith, Tony Watson, Joe Panik, Evan Longoria

Potential Matches: Angels, Twins, Rays, Brewers

Introducing Game Score WAR

I’m really excited to share a major statistical breakthrough with all of you. It’s a lot to cover, so I’m going to apologize in advance if something doesn’t add up. This is something I plan on referencing often in the future (via this blog, my Twitter account, etc), so I need to make sure I provide the background information here first.

Long story short, I found a way to convert pitcher Game Score into WAR totals… and I didn’t really even mean to!

Now, websites run by people who are a whole lot smarter than I am already do a fantastic job assigning wins to players with their own complex WAR formulas. I’m not going to pretend for one second that this “Game Score WAR” even approaches the sophistication of those models… but what I am going to tell you – and the reason why I’m so excited to share this – is that these Game Score WARs actually line up really well with both Fangraphs & Baseball-Reference. Like, it’s kind of blown my mind.