Spring Battles: Infield

Cactus League play begins for our Gigantes in three days, and there are five roster spots open by my estimation… 3 bullpen, 1 infield and 1 outfield. You already know all about the Belt’s, Pagan’s and Lincecum’s of the world. Those guys are locks, you just cross your fingers for their health this spring. We’ve also profiled most of the kids like Crick in camp; most of those guys aren’t competing for a spot this year anyway.

I wanted to take a look at the other guys in camp, the 40-man and non-roster invites hanging around the complex this year. These are the players competing for the last spots on the roster, and one or two of them always seem to come out of nowhere to turn heads. In 2011 it was Ryan Vogelsong. Two years ago it was Gregor Blanco and Joaquin Arias. Last year it was Nick Noonan. Who will it be this year?

We’ll start by looking the battle for the reserve infield spot, and we’ll work our way through the rest of the positions this week.

Tony Abreu | Age 29

MLB: 611 PA, .661 OPS, 6 HR, 2 SB/4 CS

MiLB: 3386 PA, .806 OPS, 53 HR, 81 SB/45 CS

Outlook: Abreu seems to have a heck of a time staying healthy, but he does have the ability to hold his own offensively when he is on the field. He doesn’t have Adrianza’s defensive upside or youth, but I think his bat gives him a slight leg up in this battle. He’s out of options, so he likely won’t be with the organization if he’s passed over for the roster spot. His injury history makes him a risky pick out of camp, but I do think the Giants prefer his offense to the rest of these guys.

Odds of Making Opening Day Roster : 60%

Ehire Adrianza | Age 24

MLB: 20 PA, .708 OPS, 1 HR,

MiLB: 2899 PA, .679 OPS, 17 HR, 107 SB/40 CS

Outlook: You’ve got to love the kid’s defense and athleticism. By all accounts, he’s one of the best defensive players in the organization. But the Giants are really in a tough spot with Adrianza. Ideally, you’d like one more year to see what he can do offensively, but he’s out of options as well. If he has to go through waivers this spring, he’d likely have a long line of suitors waiting to put in a claim. He showed a lot of poise in his September cup of coffee last year, but that was just such a  small sample size. A sub-.700 career OPS in the minors doesn’t give me a ton of confidence in his offensive abilities, but I just have a hunch that he’ll be a contributor on a major league roster at some point. For the Giants? I really don’t know…

Odds: 50%

Nick Noonan | Age 24

MLB: 111 PA, .499 OPS, 0 HR

MiLB: 2896 PA, .700 OPS, 36 HR, 75 SB/24 CS

Outlook: Noonan was last year’s spring training surprise, but he’s got to beat out Abreu and Adrianza this season to get back on the 25-man. I thought he looked good filling in for Scutaro in April, but the league seemed to figure him out pretty quickly. I’d say his odds of breaking camp with the big club this spring are pretty slim.

Odds: 25%

Brandon Hicks | Age 28

MLB: 98 PA, .493 OPS, 3 HR, 1 SB/0 CS

MiLB: 2668 PA, .770 OPS, 91 HR, 69 HR/24 CS

Outlook: He doesn’t have much for an MLB resume, but he’s shown pop and the ability to play all over the infield in his minor league career. The Giants could really use some power off the bench, so I think he’ll get his share of looks this spring. Ultimately though, he’s probably a safe bet to start the year as a utility player in Fresno, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he sees some action in San Francisco at some point during the year.

Odds: 20%

Mark Minicozzi | Age 31

MLB: None

MiLB: 3140 PA, .784 OPS, 65 HR, 16 SB/16 CS

Outlook: 2005 draft pick and a career minor leaguer. He was in indy ball for a handful of years before he essentially had a walk-on tryout with Richmond in 2012 according to Baggs in an article last month. He’s no spring chicken, but he seems like he can handle the bat. It’d be a pretty cool story if he made it to the bigs some day, but he needs to get his foot on the ground in AAA first. He’s a very interesting guy to keep an eye on this spring though.

Odds: 10%

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Giants 2014: Hot Corner

It’s been a while, but back to the state of the franchise series. Part 4 is dedicated to the hot corner, AKA the home of one Pablo Sandoval, hit machine. At this point, I can’t really call it a full-time home, as the Panda’s missed a significant amount of time to injuries, lack of conditioning, weight gains, etc. in the past few years. Pablo has all the talent in the world, and is one of the best pure hitters in the game. Don’t believe me? Ask Justin Verlander. Sandoval is also a fan favorite, and his career (and body type) has resulted in one of the longest-standing modern day Giants marketing schemes: the panda hat. But is he trustworthy anymore as the starting 3B? Will he even be on the team come next April? I’m not so sure, and neither are the Giants these days it seems.

Where it’s been: Admittedly, this post will mostly focus on the trials and tribulations of Sandoval, but there are a handful of others who’ve manned the corner in his absence – or benching, in the case of 2010 – over the past few years. The Giants signed Pablo, a 16 year-old catcher out of Venezuela in 2003. He debuted the next summer in Arizona, and had a breakout season at the plate as an 18 year-old in Salem-Keizer in his second season. By 2008, though, he entered his 5th year as a pro as mostly an afterthought to prospect watchers. But that summer saw one of the greatest offensive surges ever by a Giants farmhand (only Brandon Belt has put together a better campaign since), a .350 average and 20 HR between San Jose and Richmond. By September, Sandoval was a full-fledged major-leaguer, with his own nickname to boot. Few actually remember him by his original handle of Little Money (catcher Benji Molina was known as Big Money), but that’s the name that caught on early. Pablo hit everything in sight over the season’s final 40 games, and an unexpected star was born.

After nearly claiming the National League batting title and leading the team with 25 HR in 2009, the Giants 23 year-old switch-hitter (who’d moved to 3B full-time) was becoming an icon. Kung Fu Panda was born, and he would lead the young, upstart Giants into a new era of NL West contention. But neither ownership nor the fan base could predict the letdown that would ensue for Sandoval in 2010. While the Giants were surging for the postseason, their former offensive leader was playing himself out of a job and into a bigger pant size. This was the first time any of us really saw the “Bad Panda” side of Pablo, who watched Juan Uribe take over as the starting 3B down the stretch. Sandoval rode the pine through October while teammates forever changed the city of San Francisco and the franchise.

Since then, it’s been quite the mixture of Good Panda and Bad Panda. His 2011 season could’ve been even better than 2009, but the first installment of the hamate bone saga sent him to the DL for weeks. In 2012, he’d play in only 108 games (a career low), thanks in large part to hamate bone, part two. This time, though, he’d come back with a resurgent final month of the season. He’d follow that up with a postseason performance for the ages. Three moon balls in a World Series game… the stuff of legends. Again, ask Verlander about it. After watching from the dugout during the 2010 go-around, there’s no way Pablo was missing the fun in 2012. That run, and the Game 1 heroics, were a nice reminder to the entire organization that the Panda could still be one of the top hitters in the game. I’ll be honest; I bought into it whole-heartedly, as many others probably did too. After the hamate bone saga and the Bad Panda episodes, Sandoval (26 years young) and Buster Posey were ready to tag-team the rest of National League on their way to a third title in four years. The Panda was back, and the Giants were primed for a long run of greatness.

Well…not exactly.

Where it’s headed: Bad Panda showed up early and often this year, and aside from a 6-week stretch in the early part of the season, he stuck around well into the summer. Yes, Pablo stabilized both in the field and at the plate a bit late in the year after coming back from his mid-season foot injury, but the damage was done, and the organization seemed fed up. A ridiculous thought as recent as a year ago, the Giants are now rumored to be listening to offers on their 3B, who is still only 27 years old. But will they trade him? And how do they replace him if they do?

The biggest factor to remember with any Sandoval trade talks is that he’s entering the final year of his contract. And he’ll do so at the age of 28, which is pretty rare in baseball these days. Most guys don’t hit the open market until at least age 30. With Pablo’s track record of success, he’s got every opportunity in the world to earn a massive payday next offseason. From the Giants? Right now, that seems unlikely, but if he can prove healthy and productive next season, there’s no reason Sabean won’t look at extending him a little longer. If he breaks out – say .300 with 25 HR (which we all know he is capable of) – he’ll certainly be in line to get a shiny new deal from a team who believes his conditioning issues are behind him. Either way, I really think this isn’t the time for the Giants to trade him. If they stand to acquire a top prospect or an upgrade in the starting rotation, then it might make sense. Otherwise, it makes more sense to hold onto him and see if he’s motivated in his contract year.

If the Giants don’t trade Pablo, they still would be wise to enter 2014 with a backup plan in place. The Panda has had at least one significant DL trip in three straight seasons… so there’s a definite pattern here. For the past couple years, Joaquin Arias has done a pretty nice job filling in, both as a temporary starter and late-game defensive replacement. Sabean found Arias and Gregor Blanco on the bargain shelf in 2012, and they’ve both been very valuable role players in their time with the club. But Arias is arbitration-eligible this year, and while he doesn’t stand to get a tremendous raise, the Giants will need to decide if they want to bring him back. They’ve got a logjam of reserve-infield types in the organization right now with guys like Tony Abreu, Nick Noonan and Ehire Adrianza, so there’s some sorting out that’ll need to take place this winter. Personally, I’d make sure there’s a spot for Arias, although that may mean Adrianza and his slick glove are headed for another organization.

But what if the Giants do bite on a trade offer for Sandoval this winter? What if the Yankees are willing to part ways with one of their outfield prospects and a starting pitcher? It wouldn’t be the first time the Evil Empire sold some kids to bolster their offense, and there’s a definite corner infield need in New York at the moment. Hey, stranger things have happened. In the event the Giants do find a trade partner for Sandoval, they’ll have an immediate hole at the hot corner. How will they get consistent production? If they aren’t confident that Arias can handle the starting job, they could look to free agency. How about a 2-3 year deal for Omar Infante? Infante is a professional hitter whose bat profiles very similarly to his fellow Venezuelan vet Marco Scutaro. Infante doesn’t strike out much, he’s a career .279 hitter, and he’s played all over the infield in the past. He won’t be too expensive, and he should be able to handle 3B. If you’d rather play him at 2B, you can move Scutaro to the left side. That way, you can lift Scooter late for Arias, much like Bochy has done with Pablo the last couple years. Personally, I’d make Infante an offer even if Pablo doesn’t get traded. Sabean said he needs more depth. Infante helps give you that in the infield.

What about Buster Posey? Would the Giants consider moving him to 3B in the future? It’s been talked about by the media quite a bit in the past year, and it makes sense. If Pablo plays 2014 in San Francisco and decides to walk for greener pastures next winter, it may be more reasonable to replace him with Posey, a proven hitter, than hoping you can find some production in free agency. 3B isn’t a deep position; the Evan Longoria’s and David Wright’s of the world are in short supply. Getting Buster out from behind the dish is something the Giants need to look at heavily, but that’s a topic we’ll cover later. With Belt holding down the 1B job these days, moving Posey to 3rd by 2015 could really bolster that offense. I’m not saying he’d be a Gold Glove infielder, but he did play some shortstop at Florida State (as a freshman), so it’s not like he’d be incompetent without his catcher’s gear. It’s definitely an intriguing idea, and one that the Giants would be wise to start talking about this winter.

There are a couple other in-house 3B who could play their way into some kind of role in the near future: the Louisville hackers, Chris Dominguez and Adam Duvall. Dominguez could be in line for a call-up if Sandoval is traded or misses significant time next season. He’s got as much power as anyone in the organization, but it seems like he sacrificed it a bit to make more contact this year in Fresno. Hey, whatever it takes to get to the dance, right? It worked in AAA, but will it work in the show? Dominguez is also pretty good defensively, and has a cannon for an arm. The defense gives him an edge over Duvall, in my book.

Everything I’ve read about Duvall says he’s pretty rough in the field, but he’s another guy with insane power. Again, he doesn’t make a lot of contact, which might be a red flag, but he actually held his own at the dish in the tough Eastern League this year. Had he stayed healthy all season, I think his offensive numbers would’ve been even better. I like Duvall as a nice sleeper in the org, but he’s not a fresh-faced baby anymore. Neither of these guys are the long-term answer (Sabean is hoping Ryder Jones can be that guy someday), but both might get an opportunity to provide some infield depth sooner than later.

Honestly, I don’t think Pablo is going anywhere this winter. Like Lincecum, Cain, and Posey, Sandoval played a major role in bringing the Giants back from the dark days of the late 2000’s. He’s a fan favorite, and he puts money in the organization’s pocket. Those players generally don’t get shipped off easily. If he can put together a solid season in his walk-year, maybe Sabean gives him the shiny new contract. At this point, who knows? But I’d like to see Good Panda get one more shot. He should have all the motivation in the world to perform. If he doesn’t, so long panda hats. If he does, however, the Giants could have a strong offense in the mediocre NL West. When healthy and in shape, Pablo’s a fun player to watch. He’s upbeat, goofy, and one of the best damn natural hitters in baseball. See-ball, hit-ball, Pablo. Giants Nation is counting on you… don’t let us down.

Minors Roundup: Fresno

Minor League regular seasons are winding down (the rookie leagues have already finished), and many of the Giants’ affiliates are headed for the postseason. There’s a lot going on in general with the farm these days, so I thought we’d play a little catch-up for each squad.

A quick side note: I haven’t finished the series on pitching in the organization, as I’ve yet to cover the short-season teams. Once you get down to those levels, though, basically everyone except for the occasional 24 year-old who’s never made it out of rookie ball is a realistic prospect. I say this because most of these guys are new draft picks or international signings. They haven’t really had any time to either improve or blow their stock yet. Keeping this in mind, I’ll probably find a way to look at just a few of the noteworthy pitchers at these levels, rather than logging stats for all 50-60 of them. So… maybe we’ll look at 5 or 6 from Salem-Keizer and 3 or 4 from the rookie league clubs. Anyway, I hope the pitching series has been as much of a learning experience for you as it has been for me, and I hope to have it wrapped up soon.

Back to the MiLB updates:

Fresno: 65-74, Eliminated from playoff contention.

The AAA Griz have four games left to play this year. At that point, they’ll send a handful of players up to San Francisco for expanded roster season, or Christmas for last place MLB teams. Among the group, Heath Hembree and Ehire Adrianza will be making their Major League debuts. Hembree had a very rough outing last week, surrendering 5 hits and 3 ER in 1.2 IP. That’s the only blip he’s had on his radar this month, though. The hard-throwing righty has 30 saves this season for Fresno, and it’s about damn time his blazing heater gets a look on a big league mound. Adrianza was once a top 10 prospect in the system. He’s always had elite defensive skills, but it’s his bat that’s finally come to the party this season. I’ll admit I had all but written this kid off until recently. Taking a closer look, I realize that was a mistake. Yes, he’s been in the system for ages, but Adrianza is still only 24. He likely won’t ever hit for power, but he’s got an OBP of .342 over his MiLB career. In 41 games with Fresno this summer, he’s hitting .297 with 23 BB and 31 K. If he can hit a little bit at the big league level, he’ll be a valuable player.

So, Hembree and Adrianza (both 24) are headed for the show, along with Juan Perez, Nick Noonan, Jake Dunning… Alex Pavlovic says you can probably add Surkamp and Kontos to that list. No stars, but a lot of role players. Hembree has shown he can close at every level of the minors. The Giants need more velocity in that pen. Adrianza can pick it. Can he hit? Perez may be the best defensive CF in the entire system, with a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Can he hit? Surkamp needs a few big league starts down the stretch. Dunning has been lights out in Fresno, and looked good in San Francisco earlier in the year.

Those are your September reinforcements. Who does that leave on the 40-man?

Pitchers – Dan Runzler and Edwin Escobar, as well as the injured (Affeldt, Cain, Gaudin). Runzler hasn’t really earned a promotion this season. Escobar is the one to dream on here, but I’d say a call-up is pretty wishful thinking. MLB spring training next year? Yes, please.

Infield – Tony Abreu, Angel Villalona. Abreu is technically still on the DL, but he’s been rehabbing in Fresno. He should be promoted at some point next month. Villalona has put himself back on the map this year with his bat. 21 HR between San Jose and Richmond. Big power, but very little plate discipline. In 49 games at AA: 55k/8bb. The Giants are sending Angel to the Arizona Fall League. Can you imagine if he takes a couple of top pitchers deep?

Outfield – Tanaka is the only one left here, and he’s not really even an OF. He’s worked hard all year, but I think the Giants saw all they needed from him in July. Does he get one final chance? There’s just not enough room these days. Big league dreams may be over.

Gary Brown entered the season as Fresno’s top prospect by a pretty wide margin. Where does all of this leave him? Try this on for size… in 40 games post All-Star break, he’s hitting .201 with 8 extra base hits (2 HR) and 4 RBI. He’s stolen 4 of 6 bases, and struck out 37 times. Ouch. Brown is hitting .230 for the season (.217 vs. righty’s), and needs to completely regroup this offseason.

A couple of guys who had nice seasons at the plate, but likely won’t make their MLB debuts this year:

Chris Dominguez: 128 g, .296/.337/.799 (ops), 14 hr, 5 3b, 60 rbi, 23 bb, 110 k – Dominguez has tons of power and a very strong arm at third base. Contact has always been his big issue, although he did very well to keep his average around .300 this year. The power numbers are down, but the average is up. He seems to be of the Francisco Peguero, Juan Perez plate discipline group though… hack, hack, hack.

Johnny Monell: 117 g, .281/.370/.876, 20 hr, 63 rbi, 57 bb, 102 k, 6 sb – Monell is a 27 year-old catcher who’s been in the organization since 2007. He’s always been known for his left-handed bat, but this was his best season as a professional. The 57 walks are nice to see, as is the long-ball power. Why isn’t he a major leaguer? Defense. He’s a catcher who doesn’t catch all that well, and I don’t know that he can really play anywhere else on the diamond either. Like Dominguez, though, he deserves a shot, and I wonder how his bat would play in the show.

Wow, this went on a little longer than I was expecting. I think that gives us a pretty good look at things in Fresno. I’ll have to get to Richmond later.

Help on the Way

A few odds and ends here, as we haven’t really talked about the 25 men on the big league squad much lately… have they really given us much to talk about? Not so much. Anyway, August is coming to an end, and barring a complete flip of the switch, the Giants will finish in the bottom 10 in MLB. That could be a good thing come draft time next June. Right now, though, they’re a lousy club that’s very tough to watch.

Good news is, we may have a few more reasons to tune in when the calendar turns to September. Word is that Angel Pagan will be back some time around the 1st, with more backup coming from Fresno on the 3rd when the AAA season ends. Pagan’s return should give the team a nice boost, but I highly doubt Bochy runs him out there every night. After missing as much time as he has, and the team sitting in the cellar, it would seem inappropriate to push him. The Giants also have plenty of young outfielders to look at. Kieschnick and Peguero are already on the roster, and Alex Pavlovic reported today that Juan Perez will be joining them when rosters expand.  Seems likely that Perez will see time in CF while Peguero and Roger K share LF. Can’t forget about Blanco, who will surely get some starts down the stretch as well. I’ll be very intrigued to see how the OF playing time is passed around.

From Pavlovic’s report, the other Fresno call-ups will include Nick Noonan, Jake Dunning, probably George Kontos, possibly Eric Surkamp… None of these are big surprises. However, it sounds like the Giants have confirmed Heath Hembree and Ehire Adrianza will be on their way to the show as well. If you’re a prospect guru, there’s your excitement. Hembree is a little overdue, and I hope he shows something. I’d love to see that big fastball at AT&T next spring.

Adrianza is the big surprise here. He’s on the 40-man, so he wasn’t a tremendous long shot, but I certainly didn’t see him as a lock to get a call. In fact, he was near the very bottom of my list of possible September call-ups that I wrote about in July. His elite glove at shortstop has been talked about for a few years now, but his bat just wasn’t cutting it. He’s definitely put together a nice second half this year, earning a promotion from Richmond to Fresno mid-season. He’s got a .407 OBP in 40 games at AAA, and a .357 mark for the season. I’m excited to see his glove, but I don’t know how much time he’ll take from Crawford at short.

One last piece of good news from today: Baggarly wrote a piece about the Giants involvement in international scouting today. He mentions Masahiro Tanaka, Japanese phenom pitcher who I’d never heard of before, as well as Cuba’s big slugger Jose Abreu. Top talent like that will pull some big money, but the fact that the Giants are finally ready to get in on some of the fun is a great sign. It’s going to take some creativity to build this team up again, and the foreign market is producing a lot of talent these days.

Adrianza

Walking (Off)

When you’re 17 games out and you steal a win from a first-place team like the Red Sox, I think that’s cause for a little celebration. The Giants definitely stole one last night, gutting out three runs to overcome a 2-0 deficit. Buster tied it with a sac fly in the 8th, and Scutaro walked on a very close pitch with 2 outs and the bases loaded, and the Sox left the field pouting. I’m not sure when the Giants last walked off, but it feels like it was probably back in May. A literal “walk” off is kind of awkward, and the Giants almost didn’t know how to react at first. Scooter didn’t even think the pitch was a ball. I’m guessing the Red Sox didn’t think so either, but the whole ordeal just made the win that much sweeter.

Thoughts:

Ryan Vogelsong still didn’t have his normal fastball velocity, but he threw over 100 pitches while working 7 strong. That’s the Vogey we’ve all become accustomed to over the past couple years, digging in and working himself out of trouble. It’d sure be nice to see a few more starts like this from him down the stretch. Sabean needs someone to step up and lock down a rotation spot for next season, and the Giants would gladly pick up his option in a heartbeat if he finishes the year strong.

Another 3-hit night for Belt, and this one may have been the most impressive to me. He hit a mammoth triple off the wall in right-center in the 4th, then doubled down the line in right in the 6th. Belt’s bat has been strong all month, but he crushed those pitches last night. I can’t help but think he’s found that next level as a hitter that many players spend their entire career striving for. If he really has turned the corner, that’s a huge positive for the Giants going forward.

Speaking of 3-hit nights, Roger Kieschnick went 3-4 last night with 2 runs, including the game-winner on Scutaro’s walk (off). Roger K. continues to gain confidence at the plate. He still only has one extra base hit in the big leagues, but he’s taken 6 walks to only 4 strikeouts over the last 10 days. After starting his career with a bb/k ratio of 1/16, he’s starting to make nice adjustments. We know the guy has power in his bat, and I think we’ll start to see it as he gains more confidence. For now, he’s taken a pretty nice hold on the everyday left field spot.

Roster News:

Francoeur DFA’d; Machi and Kickham recalled; Dunning and Hembree are probably pissed.

Zito moves back into the rotation… and I can’t find any good reasons why. Not one.

Angel Pagan is getting close to returning from the DL. Pagan’s presence could make the Giants a much happier (and more competitive) team closing out this season.

Francisco Peguero and Juan Perez should be back September 1. I’d think Nick Noonan will be as well. Andres Torres should be sent the way of Francoeur… and that’s that.

Coming Soon to a Park Near You?

**Edit** Sounds like Pill and Kieschnick have been called up from Fresno this afternoon. Per Baggs, they’ll be in Philly tomorrow. Tanaka optioned, Abreu to DL… and Giants’ beat writers are full of __it, as usual.

With the trade deadline soon approaching and the Giants on one of their worst slides in recent memory, there’s so much uncertainty surrounding the team right now. While I have a hard time believing that nobody from the current 25-man roster will be traded in the next couple days, I truly don’t think we’ll see any big deals involving guys like Lincecum, Sandoval, Romo and most notably, Pence.

There are a number of factors that go into this train of thought, ranging from contract status, market value, trade return, comments from Brian Sabean himself, and, not to be forgotten, the player’s popularity with the fans. At this point, though, the season seems lost. Barring a miracle, the Giants will likely finish the year in the bottom-third of the standings. That being said, this team is in dire need of some changes. The current group, despite its huge achievements in the past, is putting a pretty awful product on the field these days. That is something the front office will need to change, as soon as possible preferably.

The Giants haven’t had a season like this since 2008, and it got me thinking: there sure are a lot of interesting guys on the squad in Fresno this year. Even if Sabean doesn’t make any big splashes on the trade front, we’re certain to see a few familiar faces get called up from AAA at some point. I’d bet we’ll see a couple new faces as well. Just my opinion here, but if you’re out of the race, it’s time to see what you’ve got going into next season. Some of these guys have earned the chance to get an extended look. Others would just be fun to see for some of us prospect-watchers.

I put together a list of the guys who are potential August/September call-ups, in order of most likely to get the call (my opinion). There are quite a few names, and for now we’ll keep it at AAA guys. It’s not likely anyone below Fresno would get a look, but I guess you never know. Maybe Mark Minicozzi or Javier Herrera from AA? My guess is no, but as Kruk says, stranger things have happened.

Brett Pill: 95% – Pill hasn’t gotten much of a shot this year, but I’d think he’s a lock for a call-up, just to add some pop off the bench. He crushes AAA pitching, but he doesn’t look like he can hit the big league breaker. I’d still like to see him get regular AB’s for a month, but that would require Belt on the bench or in the OF. Not likely.

Jake Dunning: 92% – Dunning pitched well in 19 innings with the Giants, but was sent down to make room for Joaquin Arias and newly-acquired Guillermo Moscoso. He’s got a nice fastball and shows a pretty cool head. He’ll probably be back at some point as long as he doesn’t melt in Fresno (a la Mike Kickham).

Hector Sanchez: 90% – Sanchez played a big role in last year’s World Series run, providing offense when Posey needed a break. This season, he pulled a Sandoval and showed up out of shape. He’s back in Fresno after injuries and inconsistency in SF, but I’d be shocked if he’s not called up when rosters expand in September.

Nick Noonan: 85% – Noonan has paid his dues in the minors. He flashed some nice plate discipline back in April after making the Opening Day lineup. He’s been passed over by Arias and Tony Abreu, but I’d like to see him get another shot.

Eric Surkamp: 85% – Surkamp got knocked around in his first ML action post-Tommy John surgery, but I’d say he’s a good bet for some September action if the Giants choose to rest Cain and Bumgarner.

Francisco Peguero: 75% – Peguero got a big league sniff last year, and earned another call-up early this season. The Giants didn’t give him much of a leash, and he hasn’t been back since. If he can stay healthy in Fresno, he’s another guy who needs a chance to prove himself in the outfield.

Heath Hembree: 70% – The Giants say he doesn’t have a secondary pitch, but I really think it’s time to see what Hembree DOES have, and that’s a mid-90’s heater. If you can’t give him a chance now, you might as well trade him.

Roger Kieschnick: 70% – Kieschnick would have gotten called up in 2012, but he suffered a season-ending injury. He’s been hurt a lot in his pro career, but he’s another guy who deserves a chance to show what he can do. He’s got power and a nice outfield arm, and I’m ready to see it.

Mike Kickham: 65% – Kickham has kind of fallen off the table lately in Fresno, and that may cost him a shot at getting back to AT&T Park. But it really would behoove the Giants to see if he can’t work some of his kinks out in September.

Juan Perez: 60% – Perez provided a nice spark during his brief debut in June. He played the best CF on the team, giving up his body for amazing catches and firing runners out at second, third and home. He couldn’t really hit, but I’ll say this: when he was in the lineup, I was watching to see what he’d do next. Might have to wait for Peguero and Kieschnick before he gets another shot now, though.

Dan Runzler: 45% – Runzler had a great spring, but hasn’t pitched all that well in Fresno. His strong, erratic left arm has major league stuff. If the team needs a lefty, I’d say he gets some consideration.

Gary Brown: 40% – Brown hasn’t really earned a call-up at this point, but maybe he gets a cup of coffee in September. The Giants really need their former top prospect to start hitting, and soon.

Brett Bochy: 35% – Bochy probably could have been in San Francisco this year if not for injuries and a shaky start to his season. He’s nothing fancy, but he’s closed games before, and it’d be pretty cool to see father Bruce and son Brett on the AT&T mound together.

Justin Fitzgerald: 30% – Fitzgerald is a 5th starter type and a UC Davis grad. He’s 27 and struggling in Fresno, but I’d have to think his name has at least been mentioned a couple times in talks for a spot starter.

Chris Dominguez: 25% – Dominguez seems to have changed his approach at the plate this year. He’s hitting for higher average but less power, and reportedly has a cannon at third. He’s been a strikeout machine since being drafted out of Louisville, but maybe he forces his hand in September?

Ehire Adrianza: 20% – Adrianza is a classic all-glove, no-hit shortstop. His elite defense has had him ranked in the Giants top 10 prospects in the past. He’s now one step away from the bigs. He’s still pretty young, so there’s no rush, but if he can hit at all, he’s got at least a utility job waiting for him down the road.

Johnny Monell: 15% – Monell is a catcher/1B with tremendous power, but he’s a terrible defender by most accounts. It’d be interesting to see if his left-handed bat could play at AT&T.