This is kind of an unusual post for me. I’ve been doing quite a bit of number crunching lately, and I wanted to share some of my findings. Long story short, it’s prospect ranking season, and I didn’t feel that Mac Williamson was getting the credit he had earned with his play in San Jose this season. I said as much in the comments over at DrB’s site, “When the Giants Come to Town” (Note: DrB has Mac #5 in his Giants top 50, so I certainly wasn’t complaining about his ranking there). Before you mock me, I’ll make it clear that I am fully aware of the hitter-friendly tendencies in the High-A Cal League, as well as the pitching-driven AA Eastern League. But I have seen a lot of unfair knocks on Williamson lately around the web… many from Giants fans. The old write off of, “He had a good year in San Jose, but there’s no way he holds up against the advanced pitching in AA.”
So, I wanted to know, just what are Mr. Williamson’s chances of excelling next year in Richmond? I also wondered whether the fact that Mac’s a right-handed hitter would help his chances, as it seemed to me (complete speculation) that lefty hitters had struggled more than righties in Richmond in recent years.
Here’s what I did in my attempt to answer these questions. Using Baseball Reference, I found 20 samples (10 right-handed, 10 left) of recent Giants prospects who’d played in both San Jose and Richmond, and measured the average decrease – or, rarely, increase – in their OPS. In all, I compared nearly 20,000 total plate appearances over five seasons, and I’ll admit the results were pretty eye-opening (and even somewhat promising).
A few things to keep in mind:
Players whose names are italicized have MLB service time.
The chart is sorted by the final column, which is the difference in OPS between SJ and Richmond. The players whose OPS dropped the least (or rose) are at the top.
The Giants AA affiliate moved Richmond in 2010, so I didn’t use any AA statistics from before that time (i.e. no Brett Pill).
I only included players who were right around or younger than league average (*Johnny Monell was 25 at AA in 2011). Essentially, nearly all of these guys were considered “prospects” at the time.
The ages/years listed are from the player’s season with Richmond. I did not include their age/year with San Jose. The average age of an Eastern League hitter from 2010-2013 was 24.4. The average age of a Cal League hitter in the same time was 22.7.
For players who repeated either San Jose or Richmond, I usually included their first season at each level. *The two exceptions to this are Angel Villalona, whose 2009 season at San Jose I omitted, and Roger Kieschnick, because his first stint in Richmond was cut short to injury. Kieschnick is also one of the prominent players that Williamson gets compared to, so I thought it beneficial to include both of his seasons in AA. For this reason, you’ll see his name twice (compared against his 2009 SJ season in both instances).
The average Eastern League OPS from 2010-2013 was .723.
The Average OPS in the Cal League from 2009-2013 was .767.
That should give you enough information to understand these numbers. If you have any questions about my thought-process or additions for me to consider, please don’t hesitate to address them in the comments section.
RH Hitters |
Year |
Age |
PA (Rch) |
OPS (Rch) |
PA (SJ) |
OPS (SJ) |
Diff |
Susac |
2013 |
23 |
310 |
0.820 |
426 |
0.731 |
0.089 |
Villalona |
2013 |
22 |
209 |
0.686 |
309 |
0.711 |
-0.025 |
Duvall |
2013 |
24 |
430 |
0.785 |
598 |
0.814 |
-0.029 |
Joseph |
2012 |
20 |
335 |
0.705 |
560 |
0.787 |
-0.082 |
Peguero |
2011 |
23 |
296 |
0.763 |
538 |
0.846 |
-0.083 |
Culberson |
2011 |
22 |
587 |
0.675 |
551 |
0.797 |
-0.122 |
Perez |
2011 |
24 |
497 |
0.684 |
596 |
0.809 |
-0.125 |
Dominguez |
2011 |
24 |
313 |
0.675 |
279 |
0.802 |
-0.127 |
Brown |
2012 |
23 |
610 |
0.731 |
638 |
0.925 |
-0.194 |
Neal |
2011 |
22 |
585 |
0.799 |
559 |
1.01 |
-0.211 |
RHH Totals |
22.7 |
4172 |
0.732 |
5054 |
0.823 |
-0.091 |
|
LH Hitters |
Year |
Age |
PA (Rch) |
OPS (Rch) |
PA (SJ) |
OPS (SJ) |
Diff |
Parker |
2013 |
24 |
524 |
0.785 |
571 |
0.757 |
0.028 |
Gillaspie |
2010 |
22 |
540 |
0.754 |
530 |
0.750 |
0.004 |
Belt |
2010 |
22 |
201 |
1.036 |
333 |
1.121 |
-0.085 |
Panik |
2013 |
22 |
599 |
0.68 |
605 |
0.77 |
-0.090 |
Monell |
2011 |
25 |
441 |
0.728 |
472 |
0.837 |
-0.109 |
Kieschnick |
2011 |
24 |
501 |
0.737 |
563 |
0.876 |
-0.139 |
Noonan |
2010 |
21 |
406 |
0.584 |
530 |
0.727 |
-0.143 |
Oropesa |
2013 |
23 |
259 |
0.562 |
583 |
0.763 |
-0.201 |
Kieschnick |
2010 |
23 |
246 |
0.673 |
563 |
0.876 |
-0.203 |
Crawford |
2010 |
22 |
342 |
0.712 |
119 |
1.045 |
-0.333 |
LHH Totals |
22.8 |
4059 |
0.725 |
4869 |
0.852 |
-0.127 |
|
All Hitters |
8231 |
0.729 |
9923 |
0.837 |
-0.108 |
Findings:
First off, I forgot how good Thomas Neal’s season in San Jose was. Holy smokes! On the flip side, Gary Brown in Richmond, yikes…
To the heart of the matter, though. These 19 players were once (or still are) some of the top hitting prospects in the organization. As a whole, this group was 70 points above average in the Cal League. In Richmond, 14 of the 19 were at least a full year younger than the Eastern League average, and as a group they (all 19) had an OPS 6 points above the league average. So, despite them losing 108 points in OPS (on average) from SJ to Richmond, 11 of these guys were still above average hitters in the Eastern. So the prognosis isn’t all bad. But wow, lefty hitters really take a hit in making the jump. Even in his second – and more successful – stint in AA, Kieschnick’s OPS still dropped 139 points from what he’d done in San Jose. On the surface, it appears that lefties really don’t struggle in Richmond any more than righties do, as I wouldn’t consider a 7 point difference to be all that dramatic. But, if you remove Brandon Belt’s 1.036, it drops the average OPS for the group down to .714… that’s below league average, and quite a bit lower than the average for the righties as well. So, for some reason, lefties do tend to have a harder time in Richmond. Especially when you consider that they fare better (on average) than righties in San Jose. If you remove Brandon Crawford’s inflated OPS in 119 PA, it drops the lefty average to .831, but that’s still higher than the .823 RHH mark.
One other thing I will note that caught my eye here. You’ll notice that the three top spots for righties and the top lefty are all 2013 Flying Squirrels. That’s some pretty sweet stuff, especially for an organization that gets knocked for its lack of impact bats. I know Susac didn’t play much in the second half, but can you see why people around these parts are getting excited about him? An 89 point spike from SJ to Richmond is very, very impressive. What about Parker and Duvall? What the heck are those guys doing? Don’t they know their numbers were supposed to fall off in the monster Eastern? Maybe those power numbers shouldn’t be taken too lightly… a .785 OPS in the EL is nothing to sneeze at.
Finally, Mr. Mac Williamson, the focus of our study… Mac began last season at 22 years old (turned 23 in July), and compiled an .879 OPS. The age factor isn’t really a big deal to me, but it should be noted that he’ll be a little young for the EL next year. His OPS in SJ was better than all but four of the guys on this list. So, how will the jump affect him? Until the games are played next summer, none of us can really know for sure. But based on the 8,000+ PA in Richmond of top Giants prospects before him, I’d say it wouldn’t be a shock to see Mac’s OPS drop 100 points. His BA and OBP are likely to take a hit, but if he can maintain a slugging % above .475, he should be just fine. Mostly, he just needs to stay healthy and take his hacks. If the average drops near the Mendoza line, then it might be time to panic.
Here’s my take. If Williamson struggles in AA, he certainly won’t have been the first Giants prospect to do so. He’s set such a high bar for himself in SJ that he certainly has a lot to live up to in the coming years. But if Susac, Parker and Duvall can all post an OPS of .785+, I think Mac will be all right. If he posts anything north of .850, it’ll be time to get very excited. For now, I’ll look for something in the neighborhood of .795-.815 with about 17 HR, and cross my fingers for anything better. So, I guess I would say yes, Williamson could certainly conquer the Eastern League, even if his numbers won’t blow anyone away. In my opinion, he’s one of the premier hitting prospects in the organization… and I hope to be saying that again next winter.
(Kenny Karst/MiLB.com)