Cove Chatter 2016 Top Prospects: #20

kyle-crick

2016 San Francisco Giants Top Prospects: #20

**Edit: Ok, I’ve been thinking about this profile since the minute I clicked submit a couple days ago. Honestly, I don’t know whether my ranking of Crick is too high, too low, or just right. I guess that is something we will know more about at the end of the season. But what I’m concerned about is the write-up itself. I just don’t feel like I offered much insight here, and I apologize for that. These projects sometimes get bigger and more exhausting than you remember, and motivation isn’t always so high for each post.

Here’s the deal: Crick has so, so much talent. That’s undeniable. I’ve said this for the past few seasons, and I’ll say it again – Kyle Crick hasn’t faced a professional opponent that can beat him yet. To me, his biggest opposition has been himself, and it’s been a recurring theme for a while now. The best a hitter can really do against him is to leave the bat on their shoulder, and let him run his pitch count up… and that’s generally what they’ve done in Richmond. Still, his H/9 and HR/9 were stellar, as they’ve been throughout his career. So, you want a silver lining here, or something to hang your hat on for Crick? To me, it’s that ability to miss bats and limit hard contact. He’s still only 23, and if he can even find a minor tweak to get his control back in the 5/9 range (not great by any means), he could well be a very effective arm. At this point, it’s anyone’s guess whether that will happen.

**End rant.

#20: Kyle Crick, RHP, Age 23: Much as it pains me to write this, there really wasn’t a prospect in the system who had a more disappointing season than Crick – especially considering he was still #1 on many lists (including mine) coming into the year. For the second consecutive season at AA, the Texas right-hander struggled with command and pitch counts. This time, however, the Giants pulled him from the rotation as his walk rates ballooned out of control. Crick would spend the second half of 2015 pitching in relief, where he still walked over a batter per inning. For the year, he surrendered 66 free passes in only 63 innings. During his two campaigns at Richmond, he’s walked at least one hitter in all 33 combined starts, he’s never completed 7 innings in any one game.

There’s no doubt Crick still has great velocity and strikeout stuff, but his career 6.4 bb/9 is clearly holding him back from succeeding against advanced hitters. I really feel for the kid. He’s got one of the most electric fastballs I’ve ever seen… but until he shows that he can get the walks down to a non-alarming rate (which may never happen at this point), it’s hard to predict him having an impact role for a MLB team.

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9 thoughts on “Cove Chatter 2016 Top Prospects: #20”

  1. Nice rundown of his poor season. What I would suggest is for you to start incorporating Game Score into these analyses starting with Crick. I still have hope for Crick because of what I see in his Game Scores over the seasons. If you are interested, I wrote up a post on Crick mid last season, studying his Game Scores, referencing the same research on Game Score that you did in your first Game Score post.

    I will probably start doing more analysis combining GS and PQS this coming season, because few understand PQS but sabers have done GS analysis.

    1. Hey OGC, I enjoyed that post. I read the same article from Sabr.org. That’s where I’ve got the idea for the wins and losses. The thing that’s tough about Game Score is I haven’t found a site yet that actually includes it as a stat you can sort. B-R lists it in game logs, and lists the season average GSc for pitchers… but I haven’t found any way to compare multiple pitchers or anything like that.

      Anyway, I took Crick’s Gm Score totals from both seasons at Richmond. I completely agree about him having dominant starts even through last season, but this year was a huge step backwards IMO. His best start this year (63 GSc) would have ranked 6th on his list from last year, when he posted scores of 64 or higher 4 separate times. That’s why he was still #1 on my list last year. If he can get back to that point next season, there’ll be definite reason for optimism. But right now, I just don’t know what to expect.

      1. Totally agree that he took a huge step backwards. And I have no problem with your ranking, should have mentioned that. And I don’t know what to expect either.

        But I still have a fair amount of hope given what he has done previously and was doing at the start of 2015. It is just something happened in May that sent his season spiraling downward and hopefully he got over it during the off season.

  2. Sounds like you’re writing an eulogy. Crick is not RIP yet, but he’s got to show some repeatable and consistent control. How much is in his head is a big question, cause he’s got dominate FB stuff. He’s still young enough. Hope springs eternal and so does Crick’s FB.

  3. This is actually a kind ranking. Between the bull-pen demotion and nothing but regression in his performances with that 1.79 WHIP plus he’s no longer ‘special’ since even though he has a 70 (++) fastball, so do a number of other reliever prospects/young arms in the system:

    Strickland (who is no longer a prospect and is pushing for future closer and has hit 100.0), Black (104 MPH), Osich (98 MPH who will probably stick this year) and Ian Gardek (your #41) who might (as in might not ‘has’) have solved his control problems last year and can hit 100+ MPH.

    And these guys have been, by-and-large, doing far better with their control in the last year or two.

  4. Crick-Crick has the same problem,Coonrod had in college.If you watch old tape of Coonrod.You can see he was overthrowing on every pitch.The organization made some adjustments to his delivery.If you go on a You Tube.You’ll see what I’m talking about.After the adjustment he took off.Crick has the same problem.The high leg kick is throwing him off balance,and the main cause for his lack of control.If this adjustment is made in the off season.Crick could become the strike throwing/innings eater the team envisioned when he was selected.Tools are there.Adjustments need to be made.

    Peace Cove

  5. I think the Giants will figure Crick out soon. I feel that there’s more mental problem rather than physical problem moving forward. I am still a high guy on him (probably the most hopeful other than Mr. ogc) and if he can focus on just simplifying his view of the strike zone and be aggressive, he got 2 plus pitches to work on. Love the movement of the list so far. Great work Mr. Kyle!

  6. I’ve dropped Crick all the way to to #31, and that’s probably based on sentiment (since I’ve had him #1 for awhile). You’re right that he has an elite fastball. But I don’t trust that he will ever harness his ability to become a useful reliever, even, much less a starter. But, here’s hoping….

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