Saturday Morning 6-Pack

Here’s a 6-pack of Giants topics to get your weekend started on the right foot. Actually, the Giants already helped us get it started last night with easily one of their best wins of the year. 10 game win streaks? How about a 10-spot on the road?! It won’t get any easier today, but last night sure seemed like a statement victory from a team that really needed one. 

1. Joe Panik was never a “hyped” prospect. Not on the day he was drafted. Not when he hit over .340 in his first professional summer. Especially not when he struggled offensively in AA. And not when he caught fire at the dish in Fresno this summer. Joe Panik has 144 MLB plate appearances… and he’s a .316 hitter, with solid BB/K rates, 6 extra base hits, a fine infield glove/arm, and now a clutch 400+ foot home run. The pundits can keep their hype. I’ll take Panik for the next 5 years.

2. Andrew Susac, the pride of Roseville… owner of a big league, opposite field home run. He’s hitting .286 in 8 games this month. He’ll start today against Strasburg, but I believe he should be starting at least 3 times a week right now. Between Belt’s concussions and Posey’s “chronic hip injury,” it seems obvious to me that both of the catchers should be in the lineup as much as possible. Ishikawa has provided a nice little boost this week, but I’d put Posey at 1B for the next 5 games and not think twice about it.

3. Sticking with the roster/lineup theme here: Brandon Crawford is hitting .196 against RHP and .290 against lefties for the year. He owns a .179 average this month after posting a .173 mark in July. He made his 18th error on a routine grounder yesterday. So, I ask you, why is Matt Duffy sitting on the bench? Duffy could hit .175, I guarantee you that. But I think he, like Panik, could provide a little spark to the lineup right now. Just a thought.

4. On the farm: Speaking of Duffy… there seems to be another totally under-the-radar Giants prospect hitting his way onto the scene. If you visit Cove Chatter often, then Blake Miller isn’t a new name to you. But he might just be another draft win for the Giants. No, his .344 average in Richmond won’t last forever. But when anybody puts up the kind of numbers Miller has this year, let alone a 25th round pick, you have to take notice. He strikes out more than Duffy, and he’s a little older. But he’s also bigger and has more power, and for the last three months, all this kid has done is hit. Apparently he was the best hitter for Sac State as a true freshman. That’s before he transferred to D2 Western Oregon. He’s probably the kind of guy who will have to grind twice as hard all the way through, but the fact that he was called to replace Duffy in Richmond… and that he hasn’t missed a beat at the plate since, tells me the front office is taking notice.

5. Ray Black and his 100 mph heater are in San Jose now. I hope the Little Giants have a televised game soon, because I can’t wait to watch this guy pitch. 64 K in 31 IP… wow. San Jose is making a push for the playoffs, and the recent additions of Daniel Carbonell and Tyler Horan have really helped boost that lineup. Now Black and Jake Smith should bolster an already solid bullpen. The only person I feel bad for in this ordeal is Augusta’s David Lee, who no longer gets to watch the best fastball in the minors.  

6. Clayton Blackburn has his groove back. Last night, he followed up his 11-K masterpiece with a 9-K outing over 7 shutout innings. His last two starts look like this: 15 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 20 K. As excited as I was for Panik and Susac to reach Fresno (and the majors) this year, that’s how pumped up I am about Blackburn, Blach and likely Crick getting their shot in AAA next season. 

One for the Road: Salem-Keizer lost last night, but the Giants NWL club is still right in the thick of things in the second half. Having Keury Mella rehabbing on your club surely doesn’t hurt your cause, I’ll say that… and word on the street is Tyler Beede is Oregon-bound as well. But it’s that Volcano lineup that has me excited right now. Christian Arroyo, Aramis Garcia, Ryder Jones, Austin Slater, Dylan Davis, Skyler Ewing, Johneshwy Fargas, Hunter Cole… this team has very little offensive talent when the summer season started. Now they’re a powerhouse at the plate. The Giants have plucked some very underrated hitters from the last two drafts, and we’re seeing some nice early returns. The fact that most of these guys could end up together in San Jose next season is exciting. Frankly, I’ll be a bit irked if the organization doesn’t send Arroyo and Jones to the Cal League with these college bats. I’d keep this group together as long as I could.

Thanks for reading, and have a great weekend everyone! 

 

 

Minor League Quick Hits

The Giants farm system took a lot of heat in the offseason, and then didn’t exactly start the year on fire. Things have really turned around in the 2nd half, however. Here’s a few names, notes, and other talking points about the organization’s prospects.

1. The Giants supposedly can’t develop a hitter to save their lives. Yet Joe Panik, Adam Duvall, Andrew Susac and Matt Duffy are all major leaguers right now. Mark this down: You could start Susac, Panik and Duffy every game for the rest of the year, and I’d be willing to wager you’d have a competitive team. I LOVE what those guys are doing.

2. Clayton Blackburn put together the pitching performance of the year for the organization yesterday. 8 shutout innings, 3 H, no walks and 11 strikeouts. It’s outings like that in the upper minors which take a prospect’s status to the next level. Blackburn has been injured for a good portion of the season, so yesterday’s gem was a huge development.

3. More on Blackburn: I caught about 5 minutes of the start on MiLB tv. His breaking ball was dominant. What stood out most to me, however, was his body. He appears to be in much better shape (to my untrained eye) now than he was earlier in the year.

4. People should be, and soon likely will be talking about Cuban signee Daniel Carbonell. He’s got the chance to be a game-changer for this organization… speed, defense, and an impressive swing. Hopefully his early performance will motivate the front office to take a harder look at Cuban sensation Rusney Castillo – high price tag or not.

5. To the naked eye, the 2014 draft class doesn’t look like anything special. But it’s a group that is growing on me. Obviously, the success of the class hinges on Tyler Beede. But the Giants took some very interesting players with college picks (bats) Aramis Garcia, Austin Slater, Dylan Davis, Skyler Ewing, Hunter Cole and Richard Amion, and (arms) Sam Coonrod, Connor Kaden, Matt Gage, and Greg Brody. Some of those guys are off to pretty nice starts this summer. I think I’m most interested in the prep picks the organization made this year. Guys like Logan Webb and Stetson Woods, Byron Murray, Luis Lacen and Kevin Rivera. These aren’t the sexy names among the draft, but if one of them can develop into something, it will be a huge win for the farm system. Keep an eye on this class (and last year’s) going forward. 

6. With the Giants rather uncharacteristically promoting so many rookie hitters to the big leagues this season, I’ve been thinking a lot about prospect evaluation, specifically for this organization. As bloggers and fans, we often try to find that one magical statistic that separates the great minor leaguers from the average ones. Because, as we know, the majority of prospects in a system at any given time will never see a MLB clubhouse. Some people will argue that average is the all-important number to watch for hitters, while K rates are viewed as a major indicator for pitchers. But, in the Giants case, I’m starting to find that maybe the most important indicator to how the organization views its minor leaguers is service time.

What do I mean by this? Well, if you look at the 4 players (Duffy, Susac, Panik, Duvall) who the Giants have promoted and played at the MLB level this year, they all have a couple things in common. None of the 4 ever spent more than one season at a level, regardless of their performance that year (remember that Susac didn’t exactly light the world on fire in San Jose. Same for Panik last year in Richmond). Actually, Duffy is the outlier of this group, as he was promoted in-season to San Jose last year, and then aggressively assigned to Richmond for 2014. Long story short, we don’t see any players who repeated levels here. But most telling, in my opinion, is the time (or lack thereof) that each player spent in AAA. Think about it. Panik, Duvall and Susac were all in their first season with Fresno. Duffy had never even played in AAA before the Giants summoned him from Richmond. It’s becoming rather apparent to me that the Giants view their prospects’ performance in AA as the true indicator of whether they are ready to play in the majors. I know Brian Sabean mentioned something along the lines of this last winter when asked about Kyle Crick and the other AA arms, and it’s now looking very obvious at the moment – at least on the hitting side.

(The Duff Man: Mike Stobe, Getty Images)

I guess what I’m trying to say here is this: If you’re looking to evaluate a prospect (say for ranking purposes or general discussion), there are 3 things to look closely at. Did the player ever repeat a level? Was he ever promoted in-season? And maybe most importantly, has he spent more than one full season in Fresno. If you can answer yes to either the first or third questions, then odds are the Giants don’t view those players as future impact talent. And being promoted in-season? Well, that would certainly seem to indicate the organization’s feelings about a prospect, but it doesn’t always guarantee they’ll make the final jump. We have two very recent examples of that in Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree. Both of them were in-season promotion players, and guys who sped their way to AAA. But Hembree had already spent way too much time in Fresno to be considered a top prospect, and it was becoming clear that Escobar would not be a candidate for a promotion to the majors this year. So, by my estimation, neither player was viewed very highly by the organization… and that was proven to be true when Sabean dealt them for Jake Peavy. Want a good example of Sabes getting value for a prospect (or two) that he isn’t crazy about? There it is.

Wow. That turned out to be much, much more than just a “quick hit.” But I think it’s very relevant to what we talk about all the time on this blog, as well as others. If the Giants view a player as MLB impact caliber, they will nearly always promote him in his first season at AAA. If you have time, take a look at all of the players on the current 25-man (or DL) that the Giants developed… Posey, Sandoval, Belt, Crawford, Adrianza, Duffy, Susac, Duvall, Panik, Romo, Bumgarner, Lincecum, Cain… How much time did they play for Fresno? Hint: not much. So, much as it pains me to say it, it’s pretty clear at this point that Gary Brown doesn’t have a future with the organization. But you probably already knew that. 

Anyway, I hope you found this as interesting as I did. I’d been thinking about it for some time, and wanted to share my thoughts. If you take away anything, it’s this: don’t believe everything you read out there… the Giants CAN AND DO develop hitters! 

7. Last, but most definitely not least: I know I don’t have the biggest following out there, but I hope that I have earned enough credibility in the Giants’ prospecting world to make a recommendation. Most of you probably already know this, but if not, then you absolutely MUST make Giant Potential a daily stop on your list. In a year’s time (I know he’s had the site longer, but I’ve only been following for about a year), Conner Penfold has transformed this site into the most unbiased and comprehensive place for all things Giants prospects. There simply is no better site out there for daily coverage, video, etc. of the Giants farm. MLB Pipeline has upped its game in the past couple years, but in my opinion even they don’t hold a candle to what Conner is doing with his site. I’m lucky to consider him a pal in the Giants “blogosphere,” and I think it’s finally time to give him the credit he is due for the awesome work he’s been doing. I sure enjoy following along, and I hope all of you will as well.

Waiting for the Imaginary Hot Streak

Gosh, I’ve been itching to write lately, and there just aren’t enough hours in the day right now. But I’m definitely having some baseball withdrawals, so it’s time to get a few thoughts out there. 

The Giants have really yanked us around this year, haven’t they? I’ve been thinking a lot about this season, and I’m beginning to wonder if we aren’t all just waiting around for some hot streak that isn’t coming. Am I the only one who feels this way?

There were signs of life from the offense today, and a sweet comeback on a day that looked all but lost. Hey, that wildcard spot is right there for the taking. Honestly though, I need to see so much more than a Saturday afternoon rally to make me believe in this club right now. The Giants haven’t won back to back home games since June 6-7. June 6-7! Ouch.

Look, a lot of things have gone against this club in 2014, just as they did in 2013. Injuries, slumps, what have you. But if this team fails to make the playoffs for a second consecutive season, it has to be time for some changes. If things continue down this path, I can think of a couple players who might be prime trade candidates this winter… If Sabean decides it’s time to explore that route. 

There are 40 games left for these guys to turn it around. That’s plenty of time to make a run. Will they? Not unless they show some more consistency. Morse’s bat finally seems to have awaken, and that could be a great sign. Mike absolutely carried this offense in April and May. Can he do that again?

On a very positive note, I love what I’m seeing from the kids right now. Joe Panik can play this game. Bochy should stick him in the 2 hole in the lineup tomorrow, and keep him there for the rest of the season. When the Giants were making their run in 2012, Pagan and Scutaro were a lethal combination at the top of the order. Between those two, the pitching staff had the luxury of working with early leads almost every night. What made Scutaro so special? Aside from him hitting at a .360 something clip, he was essentially an artist at the plate. He was nearly impossible to strike out, and he could split the infield gaps something fierce. Panik is in the midst of his first major league hot streak. He can hit, he can take a walk, and he should be the 2 hitter. It’s a small sample size, but I wonder what all those critics who questioned the Giants on draft day 2011 have to say about Mr. Panik now. 

There’s so much more to talk about, and I’d love to get into some minor league thoughts, but that’s is all I’ve got for tonight. Thank you to those who have been patient, both to me and Los Gigantes. Don’t forget that anything can happen over 40 games. Does this team have enough to push themselves to the finish? We shall see.

  

(Christian Petersen/Getty Images North America)