Sorry for the delay in getting these up. After posting my original hitter projections, I had a long discussion with Foothills Ryan and OGC about formulating projections by using specific calculations. Ryan explains his methods for offensive projections in the comments section of the original post, and that is what I used in creating the statistics below. While I obviously didn’t use the exact same methods to calculate the pitching projections, it was essentially the same idea, using BABIP, K% and BB% to formulate hits allowed, strikeouts and walks.
For hitters, my predictions (or best guesses) were PA, BABIP, K and BB rates, HR and RBI. For pitchers, I plugged in the IP, ER, HR/9, K and BB rates, and BABIP. Obviously, I used the player’s historical tendencies in estimating those numbers. But the rest of the stat line was spit out by the formulas (BA/OBP/SLG, K & BB for hitters, ERA, WHIP, H, HR, K & BB for pitchers).
It was certainly a tedious process at times doing projections this way (rather than just guessing each of the numbers), but I’ll admit I really enjoyed it. I’ve always liked number crunching – especially baseball statistics – but I never really thought that calculating projections could be done so easily. I’m not the brightest light in the room sometimes, folks.
Now that I’m sure I’ve probably confused you, I’ll say I was pleased that the majority of my new projections matched up quite well with the original ones. I can think of three reasonable explanations for this. 1) Using the calculations is essentially a waste of time when guessing will get you to nearly the same place. 2) There’s a lot of personal bias in these projections. 3) I know the Giants extremely well. I’ll take number 3, and you’ll forget I even mentioned the other two.
Anyway, here they are. Analyze away. Division-winning club here? I think it’s a real possibility, although Matt Cain might need to pitch in the high-2’s again if Lincecum, Hudson and Vogelsong don’t bounce back a little better… considering Cain had done that in four of the past five seasons before last year, I certainly think he can again. But the bullpen stacks up pretty well I’d say.
Maybe Ryan will be gracious enough to provide his projections in the comments so we have something to compare to. But only if he wants to!