2014 Giants Projections (Updated)

Sorry for the delay in getting these up. After posting my original hitter projections, I had a long discussion with Foothills Ryan and OGC about formulating projections by using specific calculations. Ryan explains his methods for offensive projections in the comments section of the original post, and that is what I used in creating the statistics below. While I obviously didn’t use the exact same methods to calculate the pitching projections, it was essentially the same idea, using BABIP, K% and BB% to formulate hits allowed, strikeouts and walks.

For hitters, my predictions (or best guesses) were PA, BABIP, K and BB rates, HR and RBI. For pitchers, I plugged in the IP, ER, HR/9, K and BB rates, and BABIP. Obviously, I used the player’s historical tendencies in estimating those numbers. But the rest of the stat line was spit out by the formulas (BA/OBP/SLG, K & BB for hitters, ERA, WHIP, H, HR, K & BB for pitchers).

It was certainly a tedious process at times doing projections this way (rather than just guessing each of the numbers), but I’ll admit I really enjoyed it. I’ve always liked number crunching – especially baseball statistics – but I never really thought that calculating projections could be done so easily. I’m not the brightest light in the room sometimes, folks.

Now that I’m sure I’ve probably confused you, I’ll say I was pleased that the majority of my new projections matched up quite well with the original ones. I can think of three reasonable explanations for this. 1) Using the calculations is essentially a waste of time when guessing will get you to nearly the same place. 2) There’s a lot of personal bias in these projections. 3) I know the Giants extremely well. I’ll take number 3, and you’ll forget I even mentioned the other two.

Anyway, here they are. Analyze away. Division-winning club here? I think it’s a real possibility, although Matt Cain might need to pitch in the high-2’s again if Lincecum, Hudson and Vogelsong don’t bounce back a little better… considering Cain had done that in four of the past five seasons before last year, I certainly think he can again. But the bullpen stacks up pretty well I’d say.

Maybe Ryan will be gracious enough to provide his projections in the comments so we have something to compare to. But only if he wants to!    

Player GP IP ERA WHIP H HR BB K
Bumgarner 33 214 2.86 1.010 154 14 62 212
Cain 33 210 3.21 1.133 177 21 61 175
Lincecum 32 204 3.93 1.333 188 20 84 188
Hudson 30 188.67 3.63 1.209 178 10 50 122
Vogelsong 28 175.33 4.26 1.493 194 18 68 125
                 
Petit 44 84.33 3.74 1.323 87 8 24 73
Romo 68 63.67 2.83 1.077 55 6 13 64
Casilla 61 57.67 2.65 1.349 51 6 27 49
Lopez 71 41.33 2.61 1.140 32 1 15 35
Affeldt 62 58 3.10 1.334 51 2 26 47
Machi 52 56.33 3.20 1.250 53 3 18 49
Hembree 43 40.33 4.02 1.465 40 4 19 44
Kontos 33 36 4.00 1.409 38 3 13 33
                 
Player PA BA OBP SLG HR RBI BB K
Pagan 618 0.276 0.329 0.414 7 54 47 86
Scutaro 515 0.285 0.332 0.363 2 38 40 36
Belt 600 0.296 0.372 0.494 20 83 62 128
Posey 588 0.312 0.387 0.505 21 91 62 75
Pence 675 0.276 0.333 0.466 24 96 51 118
Sandoval 604 0.302 0.360 0.500 24 87 50 80
Morse 465 0.248 0.296 0.424 17 54 27 111
Crawford 538 0.259 0.322 0.367 7 50 44 92
                 
Blanco 415 0.256 0.335 0.347 3 31 44 83
Arias 268 0.269 0.290 0.352 3 23 8 39
Sanchez 211 0.272 0.315 0.391 5 28 11 43
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11 thoughts on “2014 Giants Projections (Updated)”

  1. You’ve been busy KG! Thanks for the shout out/credit. I’ve been posting my projections one at a time at Giants Extra and will eventually complete all the hitters and make a comprehensive list. Bench guys I don’t have too much confidence in. Pitchers I don’t know where to begin. Ultimately you want a projection for ERA, maybe WHIP. I suppose you could generate a FIP estimate, then look at pitchers historical tendency to pitch above, on par or below their FIP. I’ll save that for another day. Good job here though.

  2. Kyle. I have been reading your blog for the past couple of months; after seeing your comments on DrB.
    As a almost lifer Giant fan 54 of my 62 years on the planet; your blog is must read for me now.
    Yours, Drb’s ,OGC and Giants Extra are wonderful sources of insight.
    I no longer make comments on Giants Extra, as I find there are to many who just plain seem to look for ways to denegrate the Giants.
    Thanks for your good work
    Richard in Winnipeg

    1. Richard, thank you very much for your compliments. I am humbled by them. Please feel free to contribute whenever you’d like. If there are specific topics you’d like me to look into, I’m always open for ideas as well. I am very pleased with how Cove Chatter has evolved in the past 8 months, and am very excited about its first full-season in the Giants blog world. Thank you for reading, and go Giants!

  3. Richard, come by the GE and say “HI”. You’re missed. Your Canadian insights are missed also. We miss Stickman too who is having some IT difficulties. Hope to see you around.

    1. Footie, your so smooth. I always enjoyed our back and forths. I expect as we get deeper into spring the urge to comment will bubble forth. Thanks for your kind words. FYI, my other Winnipeg Giants fan (buddy) and I are going to drive I-29 south from Winnipeg to KC for the games in August. Any ideas onhow tog et decent tickets; other thenfrom a scalper?

  4. Richard, you should have no problem at Kaufmann Stadium. I’ve actually been there. Why KC of all the other East/Midwest possibilities? Buy tickets early at KC Royals dot com.

    1. Footie; KC, because it is the shortest road trip, 12 hours from Winnipeg. We head out Thursday afternoon, stop and stay in Fargo overnight. Then Friday A.M. about 7 hours to KC; for 7P.M. game. (CST) . Saturday early afternoon games. Head back Sunday morning. Will check out Royals site. My buddy had checked this weekend, and said could not find tickets yet. I will double check. I am sure you are right.
      Richard

      1. Sounds like a good time! I’ve mostly used stubhub lately, but I know there are people who don’t like that site. For two tickets, using the team site might be easier.

        Ryan is probably right about having no problem getting tickets in KC. I was in Minneapolis last fall for work, the Tigers were in town for 4. I didn’t have enough time to go to a game, but I did check ticket prices… Amazing how much cheaper they were than Giants tix. I could have snagged a lower level seat behind home plate (a very good seat in my opinion) for LESS than $40. I just about fell over. It’s nice to see the sellouts at AT&T, but it would be nice to see reasonable ticket prices again. It’s a catch 22, I suppose.

  5. Kyle, here’s the full list of everybody I made a projection for. Except for Juan Perez. I just kind of threw out some numbers because who knows what kind of rate stats he’s likely to put up. Not many walks, lots of Ks, but can he get some timing in his swing and hit the ball well?

    Pagan: .278/.332/.413, 9 HR
    Scutaro: .291/.344/.371, 2 HR
    Belt: .285/.352/.480, 20 HR
    Posey: .303/.368/.483, 19 HR
    Sandoval: .300/.359/.505, 23 HR
    Pence: .272/.328/.462, 22 HR
    Morse: .248/.297/.423, 14 HR
    Crawford: .263/.323/.378, 8 HR

    Blanco: .245/.315/.325, 2 HR
    Sanchez: .269/.300/419, 7 HR
    Arias: .258/.280/338, 2 HR
    Abreu: .250/.259/.390, 3 HR
    Perez: .250/.280/.380, 2 HR

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