Cove Chatter 100: Fun with Numbers

With the prospect profiles finally complete, I thought we’d wrap up with a look at where the top 50 came from. Turns out 40 of these guys were drafted by the Giants, which is very nice to see if you’re a believer in the Giants’ ability to draft and develop, but not so great if you’re a downer like Keith Law who thinks the system is bottom 5 in baseball. I’ll take the optimistic route.

I think the 2013 draft class is a perfect example of this discrepancy. While the pundits knocked the Giants for their “reach” on Christian Arroyo – the #2 prospect in the AZL according to Baseball America – the organization went out and snagged some serious college sleeper talent, then hit it big on the back end with prep picks like John Riley, Johnshwy Fargas, Jonah Arenado and Dylan Brooks. Not too shabby if you ask me.

Actually, I look at the 3 most recent classes and see a ton of value. While Chris Stratton’s first full season might have drug the 2012 class down a bit, Mac Williamson, Ty Blach and Matt Duffy are looking like potential steals. Shilo McCall is hanging in there as the top prep pick, while there looks to be some nice bullpen talent among the Johnson, Okert, Encinosa, Gardeck group.

Speaking of talent, I hope you noticed that 3 of my top 5 are 2011 draftees. Joe Panik was the first pick among that group, and he comes in 4th on the top 50 (maybe even 5th depending on how you value Derek Law). Shankbone has made this point many a time, but this 2011 class could be the group that bolsters the Giants for years to come. That’s a good-looking group. 2010 on the other hand, seems to be fading big time. What will the Parker/Brown/Duvall trio do this year to counter?

On top of the 40 draft picks, you’ve got 8 players the Giants signed on the international market. International free agency has been a serious issue for this organization in recent years. Aside from Pablo, I don’t know that I can name another foreign signee that’s made any significant contribution for the MLB club in recent years… Hector Sanchez? It’s a promising group at the moment, but most of these guys are a ways off. Mejia leads the pack, but the trio of Flores/Gregorio/Mella has some serious upside. On the other side, Angel V. and Gustavo Cabrera are the last hope. If Cabrera can rebound from his accident, he could shoot to the top of this list. At this point though, we just don’t know what to expect from him going forward.

So 48 of the top 50 are guys signed or drafted by the organization. That’s pretty good, but it also shows the front office’s lack of willingness to split these guys up in recent years, for better or worse. One of the imports is Escobar, who is turning out to be one of Sabean’s most underrated prospect trades (which he generally doesn’t take part in). Strickland is the other, but he’s a guy the Giants really like as well.

Here’s the group broken down, with some positional rankings below.

2013 Draft: 12 (Arroyo, Ryder Jones, Ragira, Chase Johnson, Slania, Vander Tuig, Snelten, Horan, Riley, Fargas, Arenado, Brooks)

2012 Draft:  12 (Williamson, Blach Stratton, Agosta, Duffy, Stephen Johnson, McVay, McCall, Hollick, Okert, Encinosa, Gardeck)

2011 Draft: 11 (Crick, Susac, Blackburn, Panik, Law, Osich, Hall, Bandilla, Mizenko, Oropesa, Marlowe)

2010 Draft: 4 (Brown, Duvall, Chuckie Jones, Parker,

2009 Draft: 1 (Dominguez)

International FA: 8 (Mejia, Mella, Flores, Gregorio, Villalona, Galindo, Moreno, Cabrera)

Other Orgs: 2 (Escobar, Strickland)

Positional Breakdown:

RHP:  19 | LHP:  8 | C/IF: 13 | OF: 10

RHP:

  1. Crick
  2. Blackburn
  3. Stratton
  4. Mella
  5. Flores
  6. Agosta
  7. Gregorio
  8. Law
  9. Hall
  10. Chase Johnson
  11. Stephen Johnson
  12. Slania
  13. Vander Tuig
  14. Strickland
  15. Mizenko

LHP:

  1. Escobar
  2. Mejia
  3. Blach
  4. Osich
  5. Bandilla
  6. Snelten
  7. McVay
  8. Okert
  9. *Ysla
  10. *Christian Jones

C/IF:

  1. Susac
  2. Arroyo
  3. Panik
  4. Ryder Jones
  5. Villalona
  6. Duvall
  7. Ragira
  8. Duffy
  9. Riley
  10. Arenado
  11. Moreno
  12. Oropesa
  13. Dominguez
  14. *Sy
  15. *Escalante

OF:

  1. Williamson
  2. Brown
  3. Horan
  4. Galindo
  5. McCall
  6. Fargas
  7. Chuckie Jones
  8. Hollick
  9. Parker
  10. Cabrera

*Honorable Mention

Just for fun, here’s the “All-21 and Under” team.

  1. Crick
  2. Escobar
  3. Mejia
  4. Blackburn
  5. Arroyo
  6. Mella
  7. Ryder Jones
  8. Slania
  9. Snelten
  10. McCall
  11. Riley
  12. Fargas
  13. Chuckie Jones
  14. Hollick
  15. Arenado

Image

(CSNBayarea.com)

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3 thoughts on “Cove Chatter 100: Fun with Numbers”

  1. Interesting to see from this light, thanks for doing that! You can see that the Giants just don’t do prospect trades, they don’t sell off established MLB players. They get dinged for that, and it does limit the flow of talent in, but its also valuing what you have. The Red Sox were able to win without Adrian Beltre, but letting him go has created a hole they haven’t quite filled yet. The Giants are reluctant to do that sort of thing, so we’ll watch how much moneys they are comfortable throwing at Panda soon, and whether he wants to take the sure thing versus rolling the dice.

    The two teams that have shown repeated skill at letting FAs walk and gaining extra draft picks are the Red Sox and Cardinals. But that’s different from trading guys off. I suppose you have to give credit to the Rays on that regard, but that FO is swimming in glorification at all times. Billy Beane also sells off like a madman. The Giants don’t have to sell off, they are a upper mid-market squad.

    The area of weakness besides hitting or more specific to hitting is the IFA hitters. They need some new blood to look at things differently. But they have a lot of very nice pitching guys in the IFA pipeline, and there’s even some leftiness to boot.

    And in the draft, I think its fair to ask if they have to go after all these strong armed reliever profiles. Of course, if you hit on just one and turn them into a starter, its a sweet steal. Just like Belt was a sweet steal. So maybe their stubborn insistence on the overdraft the arms they like is a good thing. But that, nor the flawed power bat in the 2-4th rounds, has not rolled sevens yet.

  2. Er… That was me as the anon just then. Also the HS versus college, the Giants skew heavily the latter. But they have good success with HS, so I wonder if its having very high standards to get a better hit rate. They also have interesting pursuits on hitters, generally going for the demonstrated ability to hit over athletic tools. I’m very interested to see how Joe Panik does this year in AAA. Hopefully better than the guy he is lumped in with, Downtown Gary Brown.

    1. Thanks for commenting, whoever you are. I was looking over MLB.com’s 50 2014 draft profiles the other night, specifically checking out the position players. It’s a lot more thin than I thought. Maybe a few surprises will spring up this summer, but I’m pretty convinced that the organization should target the best bat available at #14… as much as I’d love to see a big time prep arm right there, I think they’ve got an advantage in this spot, as a good chunk of the top 10-15 picks should be pitchers (I’m guessing). If that’s the case, there should be some nice positional talent hanging around at 14, and I think that’s where you’ve got to strike. The Giants have done well finding underrated pitchers outside the 1st round, and I think there will still be some nice upside arms available in that mid-2nd round period. I’m dreaming on Trea Turner, but man it thins out after that.

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